BONUS: State Actors Are Coming For Your Infrastructure

I am once again tapping the sign

I didn’t sleep great last night.

Back in March, I wrote about the threat that small and cheap drones posed on aging, expensive, hard-to-replace, geolocatable, and static New England American electric infrastructure.

I have two more vignettes for you.

Vignette 6: Operation Spider’s Web

Operation Spider’s Web Операція Павутина was a covert operation by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). It had been set up over the course of eighteen months, but the trap sprung on 1 June 2025. On that day, a number of Russian truckers were given instructions to carry wooden sheds to particular coordinates—which apparently is a normal thing asked of truckers. They suspected nothing.

But on an over-the-air signal, these sheds opened up to reveal swarms of quadcopter drones, assembled by covert operatives in Russia. These drones used remote guidance (potential over civilian cell networks), dead-reckon (no GPS!) navigation, and AI/computer-vision-enabled terminal guidance.

Per the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), twelve bomber and transport aircraft have been confirmed destroyed. The Russian Federation lacks the industrial capacity—factory staff, materials, technical know-how, capital—to replace these airframes in a functional timeframe.

Handheld drones. GPS-optional at most. Smuggled across a militarized border, deep into Russian territory, targeting nigh-irreplaceable equipment.

Vignette 7: Mossad Drone Bases in Iran

On 12 June 2025, literally eleven days later, Israel launched a shock-and-awe strike on Iranian targets—particularly nuclear research facilities and leadership in the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps. This happened literally last night at time of writing, so details on the ground are scarce.

But I did see this tweet:¹

According to an Israeli official, the Mossad built a secret explosive drone base in Iran for this morning's operation. The drones were used to strike ballistic missile launchers at a base near Tehran, preventing Iran from firing projectiles at Israel as this morning's strikes began. Additionally, vehicles carrying weapons systems were smuggled into Iran. These systems took out Iran's air defenses and gave Israeli planes air supremacy and freedom of action over Iran. A third covert effort involved Mossad commandos deploying precision missiles near anti-aircraft sites in central Iran.

This happened too soon and too smoothly to be a slapdash copycat of Operation Spider’s Web. The conspiratorial view is that Mossad picked up on the SBU’s actions long ago and thought, “What if we did that?” The more likely view is convergent evolution in military affairs.

Like how so many crustaceans eventually just become crabs, it seems so many asymmetric combatants, from Syrian rebels to Ukrainian special operatives to Mossad, are converging on smuggled trucks full of small, expendable, remote-operated, AI-guidance-enabled drones.

You Know Who’s Also an Asymmetric Combatant?

That’s right! The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of the People’s Republic of China! If the PLA Special Operations Force are rubes, then they’re looking at the carnage that covert drone hubs wrought in two weeks in two different conflicts and thinking, “What if we did that in the United States as part of that Taiwan invasion we’ve tooled our entire Eastern Theater Command for?”

But they’re not rubes.² They’ve also embraced the new military carcinization and have figured out how to smuggle explosive drones into the United States, hide them in ratty Chevy Express vans, and deploy them on American infrastructure. I don’t need a security clearance to know that; I can just look at the vulnerability and assume the strategic adversary is not stupid. Run the timeline—the soft target for PLA invasion readiness is Fall 2027 to Spring 2028. If Operation Spider’s Web is any indication of timelines, then someone is building explosive drones for the PLA on American soil right now.

In my initial article, I gave a rundown of what’s possible with a tight budget:

I suspect that two quadcopters with drone-drop grenades [attacking two substations] would be enough to cause a blackout in Kendall Square. With six quadcopters, I could guarantee a blackout and hinder Eversource’s ability to respond in short order.

Ten grand for the kit, two to five accomplices, maybe a 3D printer, maybe a few grand more for torch-ready getaway cars. Map out deployment zones, practice exfiltrations, procure burner phones for the operation…

Meanwhile, the lead time for substation-spec transformers is pushing four years, with input raw material prices doubling since 2020. The above plot, with its fifteen-thousand-dollar budget, could cause easily $2-5M in materials replacement costs, plus untold economic costs for the local economy, plus loss of human life—especially if nearby Massachusetts General Hospital loses power too.

I did some further research for that plan, particularly where I’d launch drones from and what my getaway routes would be. This could be a “me and the boys” operation.³ It would be feasible to fund and execute by any of the people throwing firebombs in Los Angeles right now, if any of them had 50% more planning skills, OPSEC chops, and conviction to actually be an enemy of the state. But the PLA would execute a plan like the above with 10-50x the budget, manpower, and technological competence.

And there is no countermeasure.

There is no countermeasure.

I cannot pay anyone to protect my employer’s substations from hostile explosive drone attacks.

This literally happened two times in two weeks, and I’m going to tell you this a profound threat to regular people across the country, and no one will develop a fucking countermeasure until people die.

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This post and the information presented are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not reflect those of their current or previous employers or any elected officials. The author makes no recommendations toward any electric utility, regulatory body, or other organization. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, the author has not independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author assumes no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

1. Or rather, the DARC team found this tweet.

2. And if they are, the United States cannot plan on them staying rubes

3. Disclaimer: I will not bomb American substations; I have named my loyalties.